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uprisings in Egypt, oil and Export Land Model. And 'The hour X.

From: http://petrolio.blogosfere.it/

picture: the black line, which is the domestic consumption of oil, and the gray band, which is the country's oil production, came to the meeting point. That 's where the time frame inevitably X.

Knowing that Egypt's oil production peaked way back in 1995, and in any case has never been a producer of the first magnitude, had ruled that oil was somehow involved in the uprisings of recent days.

I was wrong ... although not entirely, because this post I wrote on Crisis:

The fact that many countries are oil producers should not deceive with declining production and increasing world demand, governments are to facing the dilemma of whether to sell the oil abroad or continue to support domestic demand , often heavily subsidized.

I confess that I was drawn to guess, based simply on knowledge of the oil situation in the area. But I've guessed. He writes on TOD:

Beginning in 2010 or 2011, Egypt will stop being an oil exporting nation and become a nation importing provided there is oil available on the world market. The problem is that Egypt is not the only country with a production-decline in world production is flat since 2005, and oil-producing countries are increasingly using it for domestic demand. The result is that there is less oil available for export, although there are countries like Egypt who need them.

This is an issue that we talked about many times, and that it is worth repeating. The most serious of the problems posed by the peaking is not so much "there's less oil, but the upheaval that is created in its countries oil. It's called Export Land Model , and we talked about here . Russia regards the el ' Iran, Venezuela concerns, the Mexico, but also the Yemen, in turmoil in recent days.

The dramatic choice that you need to face these countries, many of them poor and with a population explosion in is between continuing to export oil for money must be forfeited to the State, but price increases in gasoline unbearable for the people, or if domestic prices continue to moderation by giving up a fuel oil exports, which often need to import food . When confronted with the dilemma of going by car or eat, we all would know what to choose, the problem is that governments, of every color and style in every country in the world, may not reveal openly the population to be in that extreme situation . So, here is disappearing subsidies for petrol, or increase the price of food: and this inevitably leads to riots.

(Yeah I'm there, I recommend a nice post Carlo Bertani.)
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In essence then, it seems that one of the contributory causes of the increase in food prices is attributable to this mechanism perverse, that seems to have no way out, no doubt the people are not going to eat oil, and this will definitely be happy even Western nations from this point of view, they will have no other emerging industrial competitors, and at the same time will continue to steal resources to these countries by giving alms in return, in short, the status quo will be maintained from the economic point of view (sicuramente cambierà dal punto di vista politico, a meno che il popolo egiziano/tunisino/etc... di turno non si faccia ingannare nuovamente).


Speriamo non ci siano interferenze di Israele/USA/EU nella formazione dei nuovi governi... ma sarà difficile per il popolo tenere queste influenze al di fuori di essi.